Outlook
In order to reduce our cost base, we have adopted far-reaching efficiency measures, which were also included in the guidance issued in July. We confirmed this guidance when we published the interim statement on the first nine months on November 5, 2020, adding forecasts on the performance of the individual divisions. The outlook assumes that, looking ahead over the next few weeks, the corona pandemic does not burden the economy more severely than recently and that, in particular, no new lockdowns liable to adversely affect our production activities or those of our customers are imposed.
We expect order intake to reach the target corridor of € 3.1 to 3.4 billion defined for 2020 provided that the positive trend recently emerging in new orders continues in the fourth quarter. Strong order intake in the final quarter is also necessary to ensure sufficient utilization of our capacities in the coming year. Sales are expected to reach the target corridor of € 3.2 to 3.4 billion in 2020. This assumes that four of the five divisions are able to increase their sales in the final quarter over the third quarter. On the other hand, we expect the muted order intake in the Woodworking Machinery and Systems division in the second quarter to trigger a sequential decline in sales in the fourth quarter.
The target defined for the operating EBIT margin in 2020 is 2.5 to 2.8% and, as things currently stand, should be easily achievable. We project extraordinary expenses of € 75 to 85 million for 2020 as a whole primarily as a result of efficiency and capacity-adjustment measures as well as purchase price allocation effects. The major part of this – between € 43 million and € 53 million – will be placed on the books in the fourth quarter. This is due to the fact that most of the costs of the capacity reductions in European automotive business announced in July will arise at the end of the year. Even after extraordinary expenses, Group EBIT should be slightly positive for 2020 as a whole. Specifically, we anticipate an EBIT margin of 0 to 0.5%.
In detail: Group outlook
| . | 2019 act. |
Original forecast for 2020, suspended on March 30, 2020 | New forecast for 2020 | |||||
| Order intake | € m | 4,076.5 | 3,800 - 4,100 | 3,100 - 3,400 | ||||
| Sales | € m | 3,921.5 | 3,900 - 4,100 | 3,200 - 3,400 | ||||
| EBIT margin | % | 5.0 | 5.2 - 5.7 | 0 - 0.5 | ||||
| EBIT margin before extraordinary effects | % | 6.7 | 6.2 - 6.7 | 2.5 - 2.8 | ||||
| ROCE | % | 16.9 | 17 - 22 | 0 - 1.5 | ||||
| Earnings after tax | € m | 129.8 | 135 - 150 | -40 - -10 | ||||
| Cash flow from operating activities | € m | 171.9 | 180 - 230 | 70 - 120 | ||||
| Free cash flow | € m | 44.9 | 70 - 120 | -40 - 10 | ||||
| Net financial status (December 31) | € m | -99.3 | -80 - -30 | -230 - -180 | ||||
| Capital expenditure (net of acquisitions) | € m | 102.6 | 95 - 105 | 75 - 85 |
Light vehicle production forecast
As a supplier of production lines, in particular for the automotive as well as the furniture industry, the Dürr Group depends on the investment behavior of the manufacturer. This is largely determined by the expected production in the coming years.
in m units1
1 Light vehicles production
Source: LMC Automotive
Last Update: October 2020
Dividend
Dürr intends in principle to distribute 30 to 40% of net income.
* All data was adapted after corporate action (bonus shares) for better comparability.
Disclaimer
This publication has been prepared independently by Dürr AG/Dürr group. It may contain statements which address such key issues as strategy, future financial results, events, competitive positions and product developments. Such forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors, including, but not limited to those described in disclosures of Dürr AG, in particular in the chapter “Risks” in the annual report of Dürr AG. Should one or more of these risks, uncertainties and other factors materialize, or should underlying expectations not occur or assumptions prove incorrect, actual results, performances or achievements of the Dürr group may vary materially from those described in the relevant forward-looking statements. These statements may be identified by words such as “expect,” “want,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” “seek,” “estimate,” “will,” “project” or words of similar meaning. Dürr AG neither intends, nor assumes any obligation, to update or revise its forward-looking statements regularly in light of developments which differ from those anticipated. Stated competitive positions are based on management estimates supported by information provided by specialized external agencies.
Our financial reports, presentations, press releases and ad-hoc releases may include alternative financial metrics. These metrics are not defined in the IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). Net assets, financial position and results of operations of the Dürr group should not be assessed solely on the basis of these alternative financial metrics. Under no circumstances do they replace the performance indicators presented in the consolidated financial statements and calculated in accordance with the IFRS. The calculation of alternative financial metrics may vary from company to company despite the use of the same terminology. Further information regarding the alternative financial metrics used at Dürr AG can be found in our → financial glossary on the web page.